Calculating…
Configure your loadout and raid settings, then click Calculate for your expected value and risk verdict.
How the ARC Raiders Loadout Risk Calculator Works
ARC Raiders is an extraction shooter — you bring gear into a raid, fight AI and other players, and need to extract alive to keep your loot. Every run is a gamble: bring too much gear and a single death wipes out sessions of progress; bring too little and the loot is barely worth the time. This calculator turns that gamble into a number.
The core metric is Expected Value (EV) — the average credit gain or loss per raid at your current extraction rate. If your EV is positive, you profit over a large enough sample of raids even if individual runs end badly. If your EV is negative, you will slowly drain your credit balance no matter how well any single session goes.
The break-even extraction rate tells you the minimum percentage of raids you need to extract from in order to not lose money. The formula is: break-even = loadout_value ÷ (loot_share + loadout_value) × 100. If your real extraction rate sits above this threshold, every raid is profitable in expectation.
Understanding the Risk Score and Verdict
The risk score (0–100) combines three factors: loot zone danger, squad competition multiplier, and loadout tier replacement cost. High-risk zones, solo play, and elite gear all push the score upwards.
Safe Run (0–25)
Low loadout value relative to zone loot, or a very safe zone. You consistently profit even at moderate extraction rates.
Calculated Risk (26–50)
Standard play. At a reasonable extraction rate (55–65%) this configuration generates reliable profit over time.
High Stakes (51–74)
Expensive gear, dangerous zone, or both. You need a strong extraction rate to stay net positive. One bad streak hurts.
All-In (75–100)
Extreme exposure — typically elite gear in hot zones solo. Even a 70%+ extraction rate may barely break even. Proceed with full awareness.
Loot Zone Guide
| Zone | Avg Loot | Max Loot | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Risk | 8,000 cr | 18,000 cr | Minimal PvP, easy extract |
| Medium | 20,000 cr | 45,000 cr | Balanced — standard raid zone |
| High Risk | 40,000 cr | 90,000 cr | Contested, frequent PvP |
| 🔥 Hot Zone | 75,000 cr | 160,000 cr | Drop-zone / event — maximum danger |
Solo vs. Squad: What the Numbers Say
Running solo gives you the full loot share if you extract, but you face every threat alone. Duos add a 15% loot bonus from wider map coverage but split the share two ways — the net loot per player is close to solo. Trios cover even more ground (28% bonus) but divide three ways, which slightly reduces per-player earnings in safe zones.
Where squads genuinely outperform solo play is in survival rate. Having a teammate alive when you go down changes the fight completely. If running as a trio raises your extraction rate from 50% to 70%, the compounding effect on EV outweighs the smaller share in almost every zone.
The one case where solo wins on pure EV: low-risk zones with trash gear where there is minimal PvP. Under those conditions the competition multiplier is low enough that the full loot share consistently beats a split.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a negative net EV mean?
It means that at your current extraction rate, the average raid costs you more in gear than it earns in loot. You will slowly bleed credits over time. To fix it, either raise your extraction rate, lower your loadout value, or move to a higher-loot zone.
Why is my adjusted extraction rate lower than what I entered?
The calculator applies a small downward adjustment to account for zone and gear risk multipliers. Running elite gear in a hot zone solo introduces more pressure per raid than the raw percentage reflects — the adjustment captures that.
Is it worth running elite gear in ARC Raiders?
Only if your extraction rate is high enough to cover the replacement cost. Use this calculator to find your personal break-even rate for elite gear. Most players find that running good-tier gear with a 65%+ extract rate outperforms running elite gear at 55%.
How accurate are the loot zone averages?
The values are modelled estimates based on ARC Raiders' general zone design — they reflect relative risk/reward rather than datamined exact figures. Use the "Target Loot Value" override if you have better data from your own sessions.
How is ARC Raiders different from Tarkov?
Both are extraction shooters but ARC Raiders uses a third-person perspective, emphasises co-op squad play against AI enemies (the ARCs), and has a more accessible gear system. For Tarkov flea market economics, see our Tarkov Flea Market Profit Calculator.