Predicting sale price...
Enter the game's price, category, publisher, and age — then hit Calculate to see the sale prediction.
How Do Steam Sales Work?
Steam runs seasonal sales throughout the year, with the biggest discounts appearing during the Summer Sale (June–July) and Winter Sale (December–January). During these events, most titles receive their deepest discounts of the year. Between seasonal sales, publishers often run their own week-long promotions with smaller discounts.
A game's discount depth is primarily driven by two factors: publisher policy and game age. Major AAA publishers like EA and Ubisoft follow predictable curves — typically no discount for the first 3–6 months, then 25–33% off, reaching 50% at the one-year mark. Indie publishers and Valve discount much more aggressively, often reaching 50% within 6 months.
Typical Discount Curves by Publisher
Not all publishers discount the same way. Understanding these patterns is the key to predicting when a game will go on sale.
| Publisher Tier | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year | 2 Years | 3+ Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major AAA | 0% | 25% | 50% | 67% | 75% |
| Mid-tier | 10% | 33% | 50% | 66% | 75% |
| Indie | 20% | 33% | 50% | 66% | 75% |
| Valve | 33% | 50% | 66% | 80% | 90% |
| Nintendo | 0% | 0% | 10% | 25% | 33% |
*Data sourced from SteamDB and IsThereAnyDeal historical aggregates. Patterns represent typical behavior, not guarantees.
Steam Sale Calendar
Valve runs several major sales per year. These are the best opportunities for deep discounts across the entire store.
Lunar New Year Sale
January–February. Moderate discounts, often themed around the lunar calendar.
Spring Sale
March. A newer addition to the calendar — solid discounts across the board.
Summer Sale
June–July. The biggest sale of the year. Nearly every game is discounted, often at historic lows.
Halloween Sale
October. Horror and thriller themed, but many genres participate.
Autumn Sale
November. Pre-holiday warm-up. Good discounts, often overlapping with Black Friday.
Winter Sale
December–January. Tied with Summer for the deepest discounts. Perfect for holiday gifting.
Should You Wait or Buy Now?
The calculator uses a simple but effective decision framework:
- Buy Now — if the game is already on a good sale (within 5% of the predicted discount), or if the predicted discount is modest (<30%), or if the next deep discount is more than 4 months away.
- Wait for Sale — if a deep discount (50%+) is predicted within 60 days, typically around a seasonal sale.
- Wait for Deeper Cut — if a moderate discount (30–50%) is predicted soon, but you suspect an even better deal may come later.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is this predictor?
The predictor is based on aggregated historical data from millions of Steam price points. It is highly accurate for established publishers with consistent behavior (Valve, Major AAA, Indie). It is less accurate for publishers with irregular sale patterns or games that have only been out a short time. The confidence badge indicates our certainty level.
Why doesn't Nintendo discount their games?
Nintendo follows a business strategy of perceived value preservation. By rarely discounting their titles, they maintain high resale value and brand prestige. Even years after release, first-party Nintendo games on Steam rarely exceed 33% off. This is a deliberate choice, not an oversight.
Will Early Access games go on sale?
Rarely. Most Early Access titles avoid sales until they reach full 1.0 release. The developer wants to avoid devaluing a product that is still being built. Once the game launches, the normal discount curve applies. There are exceptions — some indie Early Access titles do participate in seasonal sales — but it's uncommon.
What is the best time of year to buy on Steam?
The Summer Sale (June–July) and Winter Sale (December–January) consistently offer the deepest discounts. If you can wait, these two events are when virtually every title hits its historical low price. The Autumn Sale (November) is a close third, often overlapping with Black Friday.
Do Steam prices ever go up?
Yes. Publishers occasionally increase the base price of a game, especially after leaving Early Access or when releasing a major expansion. When this happens, sale prices are calculated from the new higher base, so a "50% off" sale may actually cost more than a previous "33% off" sale. Always compare the final price, not just the discount percentage.
Should I buy a game if it's at its historical low?
If a game is at its historical lowest price and you want to play it soon, yes — buy it. Historical lows are rarely beaten by more than a few percent, and the risk of the price going back up (due to base price increases or publisher policy changes) outweighs the potential savings from waiting another year.
How does this predictor handle bundle deals?
This predictor focuses on individual title discounts. Bundles (Humble Bundle, Fanatical, etc.) can offer even deeper effective discounts, but they are harder to predict and depend on external factors. For the most predictable savings, wait for Steam seasonal sales.