Fate Unveiled
Enter your current pity and resources above to see your odds.
How Gacha Probability Actually Works
Why a 1% drop rate does NOT mean a win in 100 pulls.
Most players assume that a 1% drop rate implies a guarantee after 100 attempts. This is the "Gambler's Fallacy." In reality, without a pity system, you would only have a 63.4% chance of success in 100 pulls. To find your exact standing, our tool uses a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) to model the probability of at least one success across n trials.
Modern games like Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail solve this with a "Soft Pity" mechanic. Your rates don't stay flat; they curve upward after pull 73. Use our Gacha Luck Meter to see where your current streak ranks globally.
The Pity Curve Breakdown
- Base Rate (0-73): Flat 0.6% chance. Statistical outliers often hit here, but it's not the norm.
- Soft Pity (74-89): Rates climb by ~6% per pull. Over 80% of players obtain their unit in this window.
- Hard Pity (90): The 100% guarantee. Reaching this is actually a statistical anomaly.
- Resource Check: Audit your savings with the Currency ROI tool before the banner ends.
Strategic Guides by Game Engine
HoYoverse Standard (Genshin/HSR/ZZZ)
These games share a near-identical "Consolidated Rate" of 1.6%. The biggest risk factor is the 50/50 system. If you lose the flip, your next 5-star is guaranteed. We recommend tracking this with our Pity Carryover Tracker to plan for future patches.
- • 160 Pulls: The statistical "safe zone" for a guarantee.
- • 180 Pulls: The absolute mathematical ceiling.
Arknights: The 2% Curve
Arknights uses a more generous base rate but lacks a traditional hard pity carryover. Instead, it relies on a "Spark" system for limited banners.
- • 50 Pulls: Soft Pity starts (Rate +2% per pull).
- • 300 Pulls: Hard exchange ("Spark") for the target.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is "Building Pity"?
"Building pity" is pulling on a banner you don't want to "prepare" for a future one. This is mathematically risky. An early 5-star reset ruins your guarantee and wastes resources.
Does pity carry over?
In most modern games, yes. Your count transfers to the next limited banner of the same type. See our Carryover Guide for specifics.
How accurate is this engine?
Our calculator is accurate to within 0.1%. We use community-verified data from millions of pulls tracked on sites like Paimon.moe.
Is my account "cursed"?
Mathematically, no. You are simply experiencing the "tail end" of a distribution curve. Check your Salt Score here.
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